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The Irish Times September 2024 Ipsos polls make for interesting reading. There’s an interactive chart here also, showing the key issues for voters over the last 12 months.
According to their surveys, 53% of people in Connacht / Ulster will give their first preference to Fine Gael or Fianna Fail at the next election. This is despite the fact the the Connacht / Ulster region is in economic decline. We are the poor relation by European standards and those that have put us in this position will command more than half of the vote at the next election! Have people lost their minds?
This chart below shows 19% of Connacht/Ulster first preferences earmarked for FF and 34% for FG – a total of 53%. This sounds like turkeys voting for Christmas! From my days out canvassing, this opinion polls seems miles off – the support for the two civil war parties just isn’t this high anecdotally.
The first preference voting of people over 65 just doesn’t seem to change according to this poll. 67% of people over 65 will give their first preference vote to FF or FG. I believe this is a combination of (i) a fear of the unknown (due mainly to high levels of trust in RTE and a lack of awareness of their rampant fearmongering) and (ii) being somewhat insulated from the harms of government actions. It’s a “better the divil you know” attitude – even if the divil you know is kicking you in the guts repeatedly!
The most eye-opening part of this poll is that farmers (the F1F2 social class category) vote overwhelmingly for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. 74% of farmers will either give their first preference vote to a Fianna Fail or Fine Gael candidate. From the farmers I have spoken to, the loyalty to FF and FG is being severely tested by a lack of supports for farmers, particularly small farms which tend to dominate in Galway.
Zero percent will go to the Green Party but that’s no surprise.
The main political parties will have this calculated in their electoral strategies and this is also reflected in their generosity in the Budget, which they will use to their advantage. These opinion polls also serve as a guide for people – showing them how their peers intend to vote – and can influence the decision on which way to vote.
They assume, on calculated probabilities, that the following will hold true:
